The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will be an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season will officially start on June 1 and end on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. However, should a tropical or subtropical cyclone form between January 1 and May 31, or between December 1 and December 31, 2011, it would count as part of the 2011 season.
Seasonal Forecast
| Source |
Date |
Named |
Hurricanes |
Major |
| NOAA |
1950–2000 |
9.6 |
5.9 |
2.3 |
|
Record high |
28 |
15 |
8 |
|
Record low |
4 |
2 |
0 |
| CSU |
6 Apr 2011 |
16 |
9 |
5 |
|
8 Dec 2010 |
17 |
9 |
5 |
| TSR |
6 Dec 2010 |
11-20 |
5-11 |
2-6 |
Noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University issue forecasts of hurricane activity each year, separately from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Klotzbach's team, formerly led by Gray, determined the average number of storms per season between 1950 and 2000 to be 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms exceeding Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 9 to 12 named storms, of which 5 to 7 reach hurricane strength and 1 to 3 become major hurricanes.
On December 8, 2010, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2011 season, predicting well above-average activity with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. As well, the team expected an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) value of approximately 165, citing that El Niño conditions were unlikely to develop by the start of the season. Lastly, the team noted a higher chance for storms to make landfall in the United States than in 2010. In addition, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium that comprises experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-range forecast a few days prior to that of CSU, with similar estimates for the year. In its report, TSR noted that tropical cyclone activity could be about 40% above the 1950–2010 average, with 15.6 (±4.3) tropical storms, 8.4 (±3.0) hurricanes, and 4.0 (±1.7) major hurricanes anticipated, and a cumulative ACE index of 141 (±58). On April 6, 2011, the CSU slightly revised their December forecast, predicting 16 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
2011 Storm Names
The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2011. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2012. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2017 season. This is the same list used in the 2005 season with the exception of Don, Katia, Rina, Sean, and Whitney, which replaced Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma, respectively.
- Arlene
- Bret
- Cindy
- Don
- Emily
- Franklin
- Gert
- Harvey
- Irene
- Jose
- Katia
- Lee
- Maria
- Nate
- Ophelia
- Philippe
- Rina
- Sean
- Tammy
- Vince
- Whitney