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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Severe Weather Advisory

EASTERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES
ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS


WTPZ31 KNHC 300841
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
200 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 100.2W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY...AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


WTPZ21 KNHC 300840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.1N 100.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 10.8N 101.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 10.3N 102.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.1N 104.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 100.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


FOPZ11 KNHC 300841
PWSEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)

ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 18(45) 2(47)
CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17)
CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



FKPZ21 KNHC 300841
TCAPZ1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20141030/0900Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: TWENTY-ONE-E
NR: 001
PSN: N1100 W10012
MOV: W 05KT
C: 1007HPA
MAX WIND: 030KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 301500 N1104 W10036
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 302100 N1101 W10103
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 310300 N1052 W10133
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 310900 N1040 W10204
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 040KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20141030/1500Z

$$


WTPN31 PHNC 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291451Z OCT 14//
AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 11.0N 100.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 100.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 11.1N 100.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 10.8N 101.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 10.3N 102.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 10.1N 104.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 10.9N 107.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.0N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.0N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301000Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 100.3W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 348 NM
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301600Z, 302200Z, 310400Z AND
311000Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 291451Z OCT 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT(WTPN21 PHNC 291500).//
NNNN

END OF REPORT
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