Hurricane Lee Severe Weather Advisory

ATLANTIC PUBLIC/MARINE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES
ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS


WTNT34 KNHC 251437
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017

...LEE BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 49.9W
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1390 MI...2240 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 49.9 West. Lee is moving toward
the south-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). The hurricane is expected
to turn toward the west by Tuesday and toward the west-northwest by
Wednesday at a slightly faster forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Lee is a tiny hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to
10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


WTNT24 KNHC 251437
TCMAT4

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017
1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 49.9W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 49.9W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 49.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.6N 50.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.6N 52.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 31.0N 53.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.4N 54.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 37.9N 50.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 45.0N 39.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 49.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA


WTNT35 KNHC 251440
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 72.9W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* North of Surf City to south of Cape Lookout

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts
should monitor the progress of Maria.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
to 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 72.9 West. Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Maria will move well east of the
southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm
Tuesday night.

Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 90 miles (150 km) primarily to the east of center and tropical-
storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 963 mb (28.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting portions of the coast
of the southeastern United States and Bermuda and will be increasing
along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today.
Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the northern coast of
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


WTNT25 KNHC 251439
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 72.9W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 72.9W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 73.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.8N 73.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.9N 73.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.8N 73.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.7N 73.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.7N 71.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 42.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 72.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


WTNT85 KNHC 251446
TCVAT5

MARIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1046 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2017

.HURRICANE MARIA

CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

NCZ095-103-104-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1046 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2017

$$

NCZ094-252300-
/O.EXA.KNHC.SS.A.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1046 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2017

$$

NCZ093-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1046 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2017

$$

NCZ046-047-252300-
/O.EXA.KNHC.SS.A.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1046 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2017

$$

NCZ081-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1046 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2017

$$

NCZ015>017-098-102-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1046 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2017

$$

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...


FKNT24 KNHC 251438
TCANT4

HURRICANE LEE ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017
1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20170925/1500Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: LEE
NR: 030
PSN: N3048 W04954
MOV: SSW 02KT
C: 0980HPA
MAX WIND: 080KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 252100 N3040 W05022
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 075KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 260300 N3036 W05058
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 075KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 260900 N3036 W05143
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 080KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 261500 N3042 W05228
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 080KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20170925/2100Z

$$


FKNT25 KNHC 251440
TCANT5

HURRICANE MARIA ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20170925/1500Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: MARIA
NR: 038
PSN: N3112 W07254
MOV: N 06KT
C: 0963HPA
MAX WIND: 070KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 252100 N3136 W07258
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 070KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 260300 N3204 W07301
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 070KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 260900 N3237 W07304
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 065KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 261500 N3307 W07306
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 065KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20170925/2100Z

$$

END OF REPORT
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