Tropical Storm Hilary Severe Weather Advisory

EASTERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES
ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS


WTPZ32 KNHC 240847
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...SATELLITE DATA SHOWS GREG IS WEAKENING...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 132.1W
ABOUT 1565 MI...2515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 132.1 West. Greg is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a
west-northwest or northwest motion is forecast for the next couple
of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next 48
hours, and Greg is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


WTPZ22 KNHC 240846
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072017
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 132.1W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 132.1W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 131.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.8N 133.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.4N 135.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.2N 136.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.9N 137.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.4N 140.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 17.0N 144.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 132.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


WTPZ34 KNHC 240847
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...HILARY BECOMES A HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 103.8W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 103.8 West. Hilary is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
direction of motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Hilary is likely to become a major hurricane
on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


WTPZ24 KNHC 240846
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.8W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.8W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 103.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.4N 104.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.1N 106.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 103.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


WTPZ35 KNHC 240848
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...IRWIN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 117.4W
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 117.4 West. Irwin is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow westward
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Irwin
is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


WTPZ25 KNHC 240848
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.4W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.4W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.8N 117.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.8N 118.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.8N 119.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.8N 120.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.4N 122.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 14.5N 123.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 15.7N 124.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 117.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


FOPZ12 KNHC 240847
PWSEP2

TROPICAL STORM GREG WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072017
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GREG WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

15N 135W 34 1 34(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
15N 135W 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 135W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



FOPZ14 KNHC 240847
PWSEP4

HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

15N 105W 34 83 13(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
15N 105W 50 18 45(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
15N 105W 64 3 29(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)

BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 42(58) 5(63) 1(64) X(64)
15N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25)
15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11)

20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 1(15) 1(16)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 33(48) 2(50) X(50)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 21(78) 1(79)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 21(47) 1(48)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 16(28) 1(29)

15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 9(30) 1(31)
15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)

20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 24(46) 4(50)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 2(21)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10)

25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14)
15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 24(44)
20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18)
20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)

25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



FOPZ15 KNHC 240849
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

10N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9)

15N 120W 34 X 13(13) 55(68) 22(90) 2(92) 1(93) X(93)
15N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 29(31) 30(61) 5(66) X(66) X(66)
15N 120W 64 X X( X) 10(10) 19(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33)

20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8)

10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)

15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 16(29) 11(40)
15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11)
15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7)

15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


FKPZ22 KNHC 240847
TCAPZ2

TROPICAL STORM GREG ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072017
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20170724/0900Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: GREG
NR: 028
PSN: N1424 W13206
MOV: WNW 08KT
C: 1003HPA
MAX WIND: 040KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 241500 N1440 W13302
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 242100 N1457 W13352
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 250300 N1515 W13437
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 250900 N1536 W13521
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 040KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20170724/1500Z

$$



FKPZ22 KNHC 240257
TCAPZ2

TROPICAL STORM GREG ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072017
0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20170724/0300Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: GREG
NR: 027
PSN: N1424 W13124
MOV: W 12KT
C: 1001HPA
MAX WIND: 045KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 240900 N1432 W13224
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 241500 N1442 W13320
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 242100 N1454 W13415
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 250300 N1509 W13504
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 045KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20170724/0900Z

$$


FKPZ24 KNHC 240847
TCAPZ4

HURRICANE HILARY ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20170724/0900Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: HILARY
NR: 012
PSN: N1400 W10348
MOV: WNW 07KT
C: 0990HPA
MAX WIND: 065KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 241500 N1416 W10428
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 075KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 242100 N1434 W10510
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 085KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 250300 N1455 W10555
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 090KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 250900 N1516 W10643
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 100KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20170724/1500Z

$$



FKPZ24 KNHC 240247
TCAPZ4

TROPICAL STORM HILARY ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017
0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20170724/0300Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: HILARY
NR: 011
PSN: N1336 W10330
MOV: WNW 08KT
C: 0997HPA
MAX WIND: 060KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 240900 N1352 W10410
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 065KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 241500 N1410 W10452
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 075KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 242100 N1431 W10537
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 080KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 250300 N1452 W10624
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 090KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20170724/0900Z

$$


FKPZ25 KNHC 240849
TCAPZ5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20170724/0900Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: IRWIN
NR: 008
PSN: N1448 W11724
MOV: W 04KT
C: 1001HPA
MAX WIND: 045KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 241500 N1448 W11744
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 050KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 242100 N1448 W11804
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 060KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 250300 N1448 W11825
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 065KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 250900 N1448 W11848
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 065KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20170724/1500Z

$$


FKPZ25 KNHC 240232
TCAPZ5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017
0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20170724/0300Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: IRWIN
NR: 007
PSN: N1454 W11718
MOV: W 07KT
C: 1001HPA
MAX WIND: 045KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 240900 N1450 W11746
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 050KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 241500 N1448 W11812
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 055KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 242100 N1448 W11836
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 060KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 250300 N1448 W11900
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 060KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20170724/0900Z

$$


WTPN34 PHNC 240400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IRWIN) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 14.9N 117.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 117.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.8N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.8N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.8N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.7N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.2N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.0N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 14.5N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240400Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 117.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 10E (IRWIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1068 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WTPN33 PHNC 240400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 13.4N 103.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 103.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.0N 104.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.7N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.4N 107.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.1N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.2N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.3N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.2N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240400Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 103.6W.
TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1386 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (IRWIN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

END OF REPORT
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