Hurricane Lee Severe Weather Advisory

ATLANTIC PUBLIC/MARINE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES
ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS


WTNT34 KNHC 261438
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

...LEE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 53.7W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1620 MI...2610 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lee was located near
latitude 29.9 North, longitude 53.7 West. Lee is moving toward the
west near 10 mph (17 km/h). The hurricane is expected to turn
northwestward on Wednesday and northward on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee could strengthen a little more before weakening likely
begins on Thursday.

Lee is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only extend
outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


WTNT24 KNHC 261437
TCMAT4

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017
1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 53.7W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 53.7W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 53.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 55.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 30.6N 56.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 31.7N 56.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.3N 56.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 46.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 53.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


WTNT35 KNHC 261746
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 42A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER THE OUTER BANKS...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 73.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Hatteras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to west of Ocracoke Inlet
* North of Cape Hatteras to Duck

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 73.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn
toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, and a turn
toward the east-northeast is anticipated on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Maria will pass east of the coast of
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm later today
or tonight.

Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). NOAA buoy 41025 located
about 15 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras recently reported a
sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h).
A wind gust to 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported at Cape
Hatteras.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
through Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States. These swells are also affecting
Bermuda, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


WTNT25 KNHC 261440
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE
HATTERAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO WEST OF OCRACOKE INLET
* NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO DUCK

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 73.1W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 210SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 73.1W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 73.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 34.3N 73.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 35.1N 73.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 35.7N 72.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.1N 70.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 170SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.6N 63.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 220SE 180SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 42.5N 49.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 73.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


WTNT85 KNHC 261756
TCVAT5

MARIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
156 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017

.HURRICANE MARIA

CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

NCZ103-104-270200-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
156 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017

$$

NCZ046-047-081-095-270200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
156 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017

$$

NCZ017-093-094-102-270200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
156 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017

$$

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...


FKNT24 KNHC 261438
TCANT4

HURRICANE LEE ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017
1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20170926/1500Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: LEE
NR: 034
PSN: N2954 W05342
MOV: W 09KT
C: 0975HPA
MAX WIND: 090KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 262100 N2958 W05438
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 095KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 270300 N3009 W05522
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 095KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 270900 N3027 W05555
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 095KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 271500 N3052 W05621
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 095KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20170926/2100Z

$$


FKNT25 KNHC 261441
TCANT5

HURRICANE MARIA ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20170926/1500Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: MARIA
NR: 042
PSN: N3336 W07306
MOV: N 06KT
C: 0971HPA
MAX WIND: 065KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 262100 N3404 W07306
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 060KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 270300 N3430 W07304
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 060KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 270900 N3453 W07301
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 060KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 271500 N3515 W07251
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 060KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20170926/2100Z

$$


WOCN31 CWHX 261758
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
FOR EASTERN CANADA
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:58 P.M. ADT TUESDAY 26 SEPTEMBER 2017.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHEAST.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==

FOR HURRICANE MARIA.

THE NEXT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 P.M. ADT.

HURRICANE MARIA WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN TURN NORTHEAST - TRACKING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES LATE IN THE WEEK.

1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3.00 P.M. ADT.

LOCATION: 33.8 NORTH 73.3 WEST.

ABOUT 260 KILOMETRES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 120 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH AT 10 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT MARIA WILL TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC PROVINCES. SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME OF THE TROPICAL RAIN MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
NEWFOUNDLAND, BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
BECAUSE OF AN ADVANCING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH.

A. WIND.

THE WINDY PART OF THE STORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE, HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STRONG SOUTH WINDS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE, COULD AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
THURSDAY. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS ASPECT CLOSELY.

B. RAINFALL.

RAINFALL FROM SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES WILL AFFECT NEWFOUNDLAND
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE TROPICAL RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MARIA MAY REACH SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND, BUT THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THE
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION FROM MARIA AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

THERE WILL BE SOME OCEAN SWELLS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WAVES BREAKING AT TIMES ABOVE 2 METRES
ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY REACH
NEWFOUNDLAND AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE
THE HEIGHT OF THESE INCOMING WAVES AT THIS POINT. THE EVOLUTION OF
MARIA'S WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE US A BETTER INDICATION.
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE AND THE PUBLIC SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL SWELLS SUBSIDE.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

MARIA WILL LIKELY BRING GALES TO THE SCOTIAN SLOPE AND THE SOUTHERN
GRAND BANKS OFF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE LIKELYHOOD OF STORM-FORCE WINDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
WAVES OVER THE GRAND BANKS LATE IN THE WEEK.

END/COUTURIER

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALERTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE
CENTRE AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

HTTP://WEATHER.GC.CA

END/ASPC

END OF REPORT
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