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WTPA35 PHFO 222041
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST WED OCT 22 2014

...ANA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 167.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM W OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF MARO REEF
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO LISIANSKI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 167.4 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS JUST WEST OF
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND TODAY...NEAR GARDNER
PINNACLES TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST OF MARO REEF ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS...GARDNER PINNACLES...AND NEARBY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS WILL BE DANGEROUS ALONG THE SOUTH FACING REEFS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR THE CENTER OF ANA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE


WTPA25 PHFO 222041
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
2100 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO LISIANSKI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 167.4W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 167.4W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 167.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.9N 167.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.2N 168.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 10SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.1N 169.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 20SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.1N 169.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 20SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.1N 166.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 40.0N 153.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 49.0N 141.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 167.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE


FOPA15 PHFO 222041
PWSCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
2100 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 167.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

35N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27)
35N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)

FR FRIG SHOALS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

MARO REEF 34 1 7( 8) 9(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)

30N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

LAYSAN 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)

LISIANSKI 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

NECKER ISLAND 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GARDNER PINNAC 34 86 2(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
GARDNER PINNAC 50 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GARDNER PINNAC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

$$
FORECASTER WROE



FKPA25 PHFO 222041
TCAPA5

TROPICAL STORM ANA ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
2100 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20141022/2100Z
TCAC: PHFO
TC: ANA
NR: 037
PSN: N2348 W16724
MOV: NNW 08KT
C: 1005HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 230300 N2432 W16740
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 230900 N2513 W16758
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 231500 N2552 W16819
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 232100 N2625 W16842
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 040KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20141023/0300Z

$$



WTPN31 PHNC 221600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02C (ANA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 22.4N 167.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 167.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.8N 168.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.3N 168.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.0N 168.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.8N 167.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 33.9N 162.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 41.2N 152.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 48.7N 139.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
221600Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 167.4W.
TROPICAL STORM 02C (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 368 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222200Z, 230400Z, 231000Z AND
231600Z.//
NNNN


TPPZ01 PGTW 222046

A. TROPICAL STORM 02C (ANA)

B. 22/2031Z

C. 24.3N

D. 167.8W

E. FIVE/GOES15

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .40 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

NOTE: BEGINNING 3 NOVEMBER 2014, JTWC WILL BE ENCODING AND
TRANSMITTING ALL FIXES TO THE NEAREST HUNDREDTH DECIMAL PLACE.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, PLEASE CONTACT JTWC AT SATOPS.JTWC
(AT)NAVY.MIL.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

BERMEA


TPPZ01 PGTW 221754

A. TROPICAL STORM 02C (ANA)

B. 22/1731Z

C. 23.4N

D. 167.3W

E. FIVE/GOES15

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .40 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

NOTE: BEGINNING 3 NOVEMBER 2014, JTWC WILL BE ENCODING AND
TRANSMITTING ALL FIXES TO THE NEAREST HUNDREDTH DECIMAL PLACE.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, PLEASE CONTACT JTWC AT SATOPS.JTWC
(AT)NAVY.MIL.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/1224Z 22.7N 167.0W AMS2
22/1304Z 22.8N 166.9W TRMM
22/1350Z 23.0N 166.9W SSMI

BERMEA


TPPZ01 PGTW 221448

A. TROPICAL STORM 02C (ANA)

B. 22/1431Z

C. 22.8N

D. 167.1W

E. FIVE/GOES15

F. T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .40 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

NOTE: BEGINNING 3 NOVEMBER 2014, JTWC WILL BE ENCODING AND
TRANSMITTING ALL FIXES TO THE NEAREST HUNDREDTH DECIMAL PLACE.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, PLEASE CONTACT JTWC AT SATOPS.JTWC
(AT)NAVY.MIL.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

UEHARA

END OF REPORT
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