Tropical Depression Five-E Severe Weather Advisory

EASTERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES
ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS


WTPZ35 KNHC 240831
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018
200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 115.6W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E
was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 115.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and
this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward
the northwest is expected on Monday, followed by a westward motion
on Tuesday that will continue through the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.
A weakening trend should begin on Monday, and the cyclone will
likely become a remnant low by the middle of next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


WTPZ25 KNHC 240831
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018
0900 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 115.6W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 115.6W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 115.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.4N 115.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.0N 117.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.6N 119.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 19.7N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 115.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


FOPZ15 KNHC 240831
PWSEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018
0900 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

ISLA CLARION 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

15N 115W 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

20N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 9(21) X(21) X(21)
20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


FKPZ25 KNHC 240832
TCAPZ5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018
0900 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20180624/0900Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: FIVE-E
NR: 002
PSN: N1506 W11536
MOV: N 09KT
C: 1007HPA
MAX WIND: 030KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 241500 N1558 W11548
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 242100 N1646 W11606
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 250300 N1731 W11630
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 250900 N1810 W11657
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 040KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20180624/1500Z

$$



WTPN31 PHNC 241000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 115.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 115.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.4N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.9N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.0N 117.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.6N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.3N 122.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.2N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.7N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
241000Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 115.6W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1090 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z.
//
NNNN

END OF REPORT
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