LiveCat Hurricane Forecast
Hurricane Jimena Severe Weather Advisory

EASTERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES
ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS


WTPZ34 KNHC 042036
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015

...KEVIN QUICKLY WEAKENING...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 115.2W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 115.2 West. Kevin is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest and west-northwest with some decrease in expected during
the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west by Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued quick weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Kevin is forecast to become a remnant low by early
Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


WTPZ24 KNHC 042036
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 115.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 115.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 115.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.8N 115.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.4N 116.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


WTPA33 PHFO 042052
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
1100 AM HST FRI SEP 04 2015

...IGNACIO FAR NORTH OF HAWAII AND HEADING NORTHWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 164.2W
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM NNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM N OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 164.2 WEST. IGNACIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IGNACIO WILL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER AS IGNACIO STARTS TO
BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE FAR NORTH PACIFIC.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD


WTPA23 PHFO 042049
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 164.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 300SE 225SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 164.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 164.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 36.3N 164.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 39.3N 164.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 41.3N 164.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 43.8N 163.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 80SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 240SE 180SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 47.1N 156.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 300SE 240SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 50.1N 141.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 52.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 164.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD


WTPA34 PHFO 042048
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
1100 AM HST FRI SEP 04 2015

...JIMENA GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FAR
EAST OF HAWAII...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 145.3W
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.3 WEST. JIMENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION AND A SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE AND POWERFUL LONG-PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY
HURRICANE JIMENA WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
SURF IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
PRIMARILY ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE


WTPA24 PHFO 042048
TCMCP4

HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 145.3W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 65SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 135SE 115SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 260SE 400SW 460NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 145.3W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 145.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.5N 145.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 85NE 65SE 55SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.4N 146.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...145NE 120SE 80SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.5N 146.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 55SE 45SW 65NW.
34 KT...140NE 115SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.6N 147.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 50SE 35SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 65SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.9N 150.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...115NE 85SE 55SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 24.9N 152.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 24.7N 155.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 145.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE


FOPZ14 KNHC 042036
PWSEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


FOPA13 PHFO 042049
PWSCP3

TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 164.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

35N 160W 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

40N 160W 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)

35N 165W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
35N 165W 50 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
35N 165W 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

40N 165W 34 5 63(68) 13(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
40N 165W 50 X 39(39) 17(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
40N 165W 64 X 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)

35N 170W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

40N 170W 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD



FOPA14 PHFO 042048
PWSCP4

HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

20N 145W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 145W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 145W 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

25N 145W 34 3 3( 6) 8(14) 5(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23)
25N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

20N 150W 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 2(12) 2(14) X(14)

25N 150W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 22(36) 5(41) 1(42)
25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11)
25N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

30N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)

20N 151W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)

20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

$$
FORECASTER WROE



FKPZ24 KNHC 042037
TCAPZ4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20150904/2100Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: KEVIN
NR: 017
PSN: N2200 W11512
MOV: N 07KT
C: 1000HPA
MAX WIND: 045KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 050300 N2232 W11520
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 050900 N2257 W11534
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 051500 N2315 W11555
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 052100 N2328 W11624
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 030KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20150905/0300Z

$$



FKPA23 PHFO 042050
TCAPA3

TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20150904/2100Z
TCAC: PHFO
TC: IGNACIO
NR: 044
PSN: N3406 W16412
MOV: N 16KT
C: 0983HPA
MAX WIND: 060KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 050300 N3534 W16420
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 060KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 050900 N3703 W16428
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 060KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 051500 N3833 W16437
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 060KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 052100 N3948 W16440
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 060KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20150905/0300Z

$$



FKPA24 PHFO 042048
TCAPA4

HURRICANE JIMENA ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20150904/2100Z
TCAC: PHFO
TC: JIMENA
NR: 037
PSN: N2000 W14518
MOV: NW 04KT
C: 0978HPA
MAX WIND: 070KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 050300 N2020 W14534
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 065KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 050900 N2043 W14549
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 065KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 051500 N2110 W14604
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 060KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 052100 N2140 W14621
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 060KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20150905/0300Z

$$



WTPN35 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 21.6N 115.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 115.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.8N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 23.4N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 23.7N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.6N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 115.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 14E (KEVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM
NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND 052200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (IGNACIO) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (JIMENA) WARNINGS
(WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WTPN34 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (JIMENA) WARNING NR 037
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 145.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 145.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.5N 145.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.4N 146.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.5N 146.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.6N 147.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.9N 150.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.9N 152.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.7N 155.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 145.4W.
HURRICANE 13E (JIMENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 559 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND 052200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (IGNACIO) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (KEVIN) WARNINGS
(WTPN35 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


TPPZ02 PGTW 042357

A. HURRICANE 12E (IGNACIO)

B. 04/2331Z

C. 34.67N

D. 164.39W

E. SIX/GOES15

F. T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .75 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING A 3.0.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

LEMBKE


TPPZ02 PGTW 042053

A. HURRICANE 12E (IGNACIO)

B. 04/2031Z

C. 33.85N

D. 164.18W

E. SIX/GOES15

F. T3.5/3.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. PT AGREES WITH DT YIELDING A 3.5 WHILE
MET YIELDS A 4.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

LEMBKE

END OF REPORT
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