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Tropical Storm Norbert Severe Weather Advisory

EASTERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES
ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS


WTPZ34 KNHC 022332
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014

...NORBERT GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 106.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. NORBERT IS FORECAST
TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...NORBERT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES OVER COLIMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF MICHOACAN AND JALISCO IN
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


WTPZ24 KNHC 022046
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO SANTA FE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 210SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 106.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.4N 107.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.5N 109.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.6N 112.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.6N 114.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 116.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 106.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


FOPZ14 KNHC 022046
PWSEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 13(23) 8(31) 1(32) X(32)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 11(19) 6(25) 1(26) 1(27)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) 2(20) X(20)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)

HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)

MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12)

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



FKPZ24 KNHC 022046
TCAPZ4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20140902/2100Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: NORBERT
NR: 002
PSN: N1830 W10630
MOV: N 08KT
C: 1004HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 030300 N1906 W10658
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 030900 N1933 W10731
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 031500 N1951 W10810
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 032100 N2007 W10846
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 045KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20140903/0300Z

$$


WTPN31 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 18.1N 106.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 106.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.4N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.0N 108.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.5N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.1N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 22.6N 112.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.6N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.0N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 106.7W. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 131 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO,
HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030400Z, 031000Z, 031600Z AND 032200Z.//

END OF REPORT
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