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EASTERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES
ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS


WTPZ32 KNHC 160858
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...TROPICAL STORM POLO FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 98.4W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF POLO.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG


WTPZ22 KNHC 160857
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF POLO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 98.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 150SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 98.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 98.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.8N 99.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.1N 101.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.9N 104.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.8N 107.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.7N 108.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 110.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 98.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


WTPZ35 KNHC 160843
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...ODILE BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 112.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE
LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA
KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF PUERTO
SAN ANDRESITO. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF LORETO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO
SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. ODILE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ODILE
IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES
OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF ODILE WILL INCREASE HEAVY RAINS
AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


WTPZ25 KNHC 160842
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE
LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA
KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF PUERTO
SAN ANDRESITO. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF LORETO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO
SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 112.7W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 112.7W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 112.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.5N 113.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.4N 113.5W...NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.4N 112.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.5N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 112.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


FOPZ12 KNHC 160858
PWSEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)

LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)

MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)

SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13)

P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) X(20)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 3(30) 1(31)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)

MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 17(25) 2(27) X(27)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14)

ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 5(23)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)

ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) 1(20)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



FOPZ15 KNHC 160843
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

P ABREOJOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

LORETO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

P PENASCO 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)

HERMOSILLO 34 6 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)

BAHIA KINO 34 49 1(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)

GUAYMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

HUATABAMPO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



FKPZ22 KNHC 160858
TCAPZ2

TROPICAL STORM POLO ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20140916/0900Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: POLO
NR: 001
PSN: N1154 W09824
MOV: WNW 08KT
C: 1005HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 161500 N1230 W09924
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 162100 N1307 W10015
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 170300 N1346 W10057
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 170900 N1427 W10136
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 045KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20140916/1500Z

$$


FKPZ25 KNHC 160843
TCAPZ5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20140916/0900Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: ODILE
NR: 025
PSN: N2724 W11242
MOV: NNW 09KT
C: 0992HPA
MAX WIND: 055KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 161500 N2808 W11310
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 050KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 162100 N2843 W11325
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 170300 N2910 W11328
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 170900 N2939 W11319
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 035KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20140916/1500Z

$$


WTPN31 PHNC 161000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (POLO) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 98.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 98.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.8N 99.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.1N 101.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.5N 102.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.9N 104.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.8N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.7N 108.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.5N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161000Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 98.8W. TROPICAL STORM 17E (POLO),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND 171000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15E (ODILE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


WTPN31 PHNC 161000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (ODILE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 27.0N 112.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 112.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 28.5N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 29.4N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 30.4N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 31.5N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161000Z POSITION NEAR 27.5N 112.8W. TROPICAL STORM 15E (ODILE),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, HAS
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND 171000Z.//
NNNN

END OF REPORT
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