Tropical Depression TWO Severe Weather Advisory
ATLANTIC PUBLIC/MARINE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES
ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS
WTNT32 KNHC 180242
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
...DEPRESSION MOVING INLAND OVER BELIZE...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 88.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER BELIZE AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND OVER EASTERN
MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY. THE DEPRESSION COULD EMERGE INTO THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR WHILE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
IF THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...
ALONG WITH THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...TABASCO...VERACRUZ...AND
THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
WTNT22 KNHC 180242
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
0300 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 88.9W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 88.9W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 88.6W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.2N 90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.8N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.2N 93.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 94.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.8N 96.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 18.5N 98.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 88.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
FKNT22 KNHC 180242
TCANT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
0300 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20130618/0300Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: TWO
NR: 003
PSN: N1642 W08854
MOV: WNW 08KT
C: 1007HPA
MAX WIND: 025KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 180900 N1702 W08950
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 025KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 181500 N1721 W09043
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 025KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 182100 N1739 W09134
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 020KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 190300 N1754 W09219
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 020KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20130618/0900Z
$$
END OF REPORT
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