Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Severe Weather Advisory

EASTERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES
ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS


WTPZ33 KNHC 260242
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WELL OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 120.1W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 120.1
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7
mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast or northeast is
expected on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


WTPZ23 KNHC 260242
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016
0300 UTC MON SEP 26 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 120.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 120.1W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 120.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.2N 119.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.8N 119.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.9N 118.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.6N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 24.6N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 120.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


FOPZ13 KNHC 260243
PWSEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016
0300 UTC MON SEP 26 2016

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)

25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



FKPZ23 KNHC 260243
TCAPZ3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016
0300 UTC MON SEP 26 2016

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20160926/0300Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: EIGHTEEN-E
NR: 003
PSN: N1642 W12006
MOV: NNW 06KT
C: 1005HPA
MAX WIND: 030KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 260900 N1702 W11954
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 261500 N1721 W11942
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 262100 N1739 W11930
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 270300 N1801 W11913
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 035KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20160926/0900Z

$$



WTPN31 PHNC 260400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 16.5N 120.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 120.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.2N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.8N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.7N 118.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.9N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.6N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.6N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
260400Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 119.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261000Z, 261600Z, 262200Z AND 270400Z.
//


WTPN31 PHNC 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 15.9N 119.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 119.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.8N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.4N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.2N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.1N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.5N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 24.0N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 25.0N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 119.5W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260400Z, 261000Z, 261600Z AND 262200Z.
//
NNNN

END OF REPORT
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